Shipping's 2025 outlook brims with uncertainty

ING still expects growth this year, but warns of a weaker 2026 

By Carly Fields

The maritime industry is once again bracing for a year of profound transformation. According to an analysis by ING, 2025 is set to be a period of "tumultuous" year, characterised by heightened "trade disruption risks”. 

Underscoring the pervasive influence of geopolitics on the shipping landscape, Rico Luman, ING's senior sector economist, noted that “wars and political tensions have altered trade patterns, and protectionist actions may cause new inefficiencies”. The central challenge, as Luman highlights, revolves around the resumption of the Red Sea/Suez route, “crucial for container shipping”. Protracted rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, initially perceived as a temporary measure, has now become a de facto new normal, consuming a significant portion of the container fleet capacity and generating cascading delays across global supply chains.

"The extra 10-14 days and 3,500 nautical miles on a trip from Asia to Europe absorb around 10% of the container fleet capacity and continue to cause knock-on delays in ports," Luman said. This extended transit time has inflated freight rates, particularly within the container sector, providing a short-term financial boost. However, it has also resulted in increased shipment costs and a surge in emissions.

However, this temporary reprieve is tenuous. ING anticipates a "gradual process" for the resumption of Red Sea transits, with smaller bulk carriers and tankers leading the way, followed by the gradual return of ultra-large container carriers. The transition period, Luman predicts, will be marked by "disruptions”, including port congestion and blank sailings. 

Protectionism puzzle

Beyond the immediate disruptions in the Red Sea, the spectre of protectionism looms large over the industry. The resurgence of tariffs, particularly from the US on Chinese imports, is triggering frontloading and forcing companies to reconfigure their supply chains. "Potential significant extra US fees for Chinese vessel operators, such as Cosco, and those using numerous China-built vessels, further increases costs," Luman said.

"The protectionist actions of the US government will increase costs and weigh on trade growth for 2026 and beyond, especially if they spiral into a trade war," Luman said, highlighting the potential for a 3% contraction in trade volume, at its worst.

The tangible impact of these trade shifts is already apparent in the evolving dynamics of global trade lanes. "Companies may start to seek new partners to circumvent higher tariffs, which could also spark re- and nearshoring in the mid-term," Luman said. This has led to more overland transport and higher demand for smaller vessels, such as feeders or short sea ships. Furthermore, "supply chains are lengthening, and smaller ports are increasingly involved in the network," signalling a move toward greater diversification. 

Despite the prevailing headwinds, the shipping industry is demonstrating pockets of resilience. For example, demand for LNG shipping is poised to experience the "most growth in 2025”, driven by its role as a replacement fuel for piped gas (in Europe) and coal. Container trade, while facing challenges, is still projected by ING to achieve around 3% year-on-year growth in 2025, supported by the gradual recovery of consumer spending. 

Tankers outperform bulk carriers

The tanker sector is expected to maintain a semblance of equilibrium in 2025 amid geopolitical turbulence, while the bulk carrier market braces for a challenging period of softening demand and increasing tonnage. 

According to ING, the tanker segment is poised for a "fairly comfortable outlook”, while bulk carrier shipping faces "tough year as China’s manufacturing sector weakens”.

Luman said ING is expecting to see “another solid year for the tanker shipping segment”, with optimism underpinned by a "mild growth trajectory of 1% year-on-year" in global oil demand, coupled with a diversification of refined product flows.  

The gradual shift of global oil demand from West to East, particularly towards India, is another factor supporting tanker activity. While China's oil consumption is decelerating due to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, the overall demand picture remains robust. "General global oil demand continues a mild growth trajectory…with the mix of refined products…gradually changing," Luman said.

While average overall earnings have retreated from the highs of 2022-23, they remain at a respectable level. "Tanker earnings aren't highly elevated anymore, but haven't sunk either," Luman said. 

For the bulk carrier sector, the outlook is considerably more challenging. "The bulker shipping sector faces a challenging outlook, with stagnating demand and an influx of new vessels after multiple years of low inflow keeping rates depressed," Luman said. 

Reduced demand for steel from the construction sector and tempered manufacturing activity have weighed on iron ore demand. While steel demand in India and other emerging economies is rising, the overall picture remains subdued. "On average, we expect dry bulk trade demand to grow slightly in 2025, with much more uncertainty for 2026," Luman said.

While the orderbook for bulk shipping has been more manageable in recent years, new orders have picked up momentum. The resilience of new-build prices, despite the softening market, is a notable feature of the bulk carrier sector. "Remarkably, new-build prices have shown resilience and trade above previous levels," Luman said.