The Freightos Baltic Global index fell 9% month on month in June to $1,277/FEU and is now 3% below 2019 levels and at its lowest since October 2019, reflecting monthly decreases across all the major ocean tradelanes.

On the transpacific, early-month GRI pushes by carriers, a 12-day labour slowdown at US West Coast ports and low-water levels in the Panama Canal were not enough to push rates up as demand still lags and larger newbuildings enter the market.

Although still early for a peak season demand bump, reports of persisting excess inventories among some major retailers alongside uncertainty about consumer strength for the remainder of the year is leading many to a pessimistic outlook for peak season 2023. 

Despite GRIs that pushed rates up about $300/FEU early in the month to both coasts, Asia - North America West Coast rates slumped to $1,192/FEU, 9% lower than a month prior and 14% lower than in 2019. Prices to the US East Coast fell 5% to $2,203/FEU, 17% lower than in 2019 as no significant increase in demand materialised and carriers were not aggressive enough in blanking sailings to sustain a rate climb.

Although still early for a peak season demand bump, reports of persisting excess inventories among some major retailers alongside uncertainty about consumer strength for the remainder of the year is leading many to a pessimistic outlook for peak season 2023.

Despite slight increases in Asia - North Europe volumes at least through April, rates fell 9% in June to $1,297/FEU, a level 88% lower than a year ago and about on par with 2019. The introduction of new ultra large vessels into the market starting in July is likely to represent another challenge to a rate rebound as many Eurozone economies are also showing signs of recession.

Asia - Mediterranean prices fell 11% this month to $2,188/FEU – likely a function of carriers adding capacity as rates to Mediterranean ports remained elevated even as prices on other lanes plummeted – but are still 24% higher than in 2019 as demand has proved more resilient on this lane.

Rates on the transatlantic fell 3% in June to $2,082/FEU and are on par with 2019 levels as carriers added capacity to this lane while demand has cooled over the past few months.

About Judah Levine, Research Lead, Freightos

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group's FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what's happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.


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