February saw a slight correction on FBX forward and index values, with some softness giving some limited relief to end users. Despite softening rates remain hugely elevated from levels seen in December 2023. 

FBX01's index rate dropped from $5,013 on 9 Feb to $4,336 on 6 Mar, hitting its lowest point in this period. Prices remained steady in February, with a slight drop in early March. Q4 and Q1 2025 prices remain at $4,000, down from $4,350 and $4,300, respectively, in February. The forward price for April is $4,250, the lowest since the beginning of February.

Nonetheless, the ongoing issue in the Red Sea, with  True Confidence being attacked, resulting in three fatalities, demonstrates that upside shocks remain ever-present. At the time of writing, the latest attack on shipping has yet to impact FBX levels, however, this clearly could change in the next few working days.

The month unfolded as follows:

FBX01's index rate dropped from $5,013 on 9 Feb to $4,336 on 6 Mar, hitting its lowest point in this period. Prices remained steady in February, with a slight drop in early March. Q4 and Q1 2025 prices remain at $4,000, down from $4,350 and $4,300, respectively, in February. The forward price for April is $4,250, the lowest since the beginning of February.

FBX11's index price decreased from $4,579 on 12 Feb to $4,310 on 6 Mar, showing stability in February and a slight dip in March. Forward prices for April were $4,500, dropping to $4,310 on 6 Mar.

FBX02 index prices fell from $399 to $359 between 9 Feb and 6 Mar, peaking at $445 on 27 Feb. There was minimal movement in forward prices, with Q3 prices at $350 in February, dropping to $345 by 6 Mar.

FBX03's index price peaked at $6,800 on 12 Feb, declining to $5,982 by 6 Mar. The forward curve dropped to $5,970 on 6 Mar from $6,500 on 9 Feb, with a significant $490 drop on 5 Mar.

FBX11's index price decreased from $4,579 on 12 Feb to $4,310 on 6 Mar, showing stability in February and a slight dip in March. Forward prices for April were $4,500, dropping to $4,310 on 6 Mar. 

FBX12's index price decreased from $983 on 12 Feb to $825 on 6 Mar. Forward curve values for Q3 and Q4 of 2024 remained steady in February, then rose slightly to $755 and $730 by 6 Mar.

FBX13's index price dropped from $6,141 on 12 Feb to $4,323 on 6 Mar, with a steady decline throughout the month. Forward prices for Q3 and Q4 dropped significantly in the first few days of March, reaching $4,250 and $4,220 by 6 Mar.

Instability and a nervous market prone to shocks make hedging in current conditions an obvious move. Tentative interests are on both sides of the market and we expect these to crystalise in the coming days. An improved macroeconomic outlook globally, with good levels of consumer resilience continues to make the case for elevated rates in the medium term, even without the Red Sea instability and Suez Canal restrictions. FBX01 (China/East Asia-US West Coast) and FBX03 (China/East Asia – US East Coast) will likely see continued firmness as a result. Another potential upside shock on the horizon for these routes is the renegotiation of the current six-year employment agreement with the ILA union, covering the US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, that expires on 30 September, raising the prospect of potential industrial action if not agreed upon promptly.

About Kieran Walsh, Commodity Broker, Freight Investor Services

Kieran is a commodity derivatives broker with expertise in swaps, futures and options. He joined FIS in June 2022 and is helping to lead their drive in the container FFA space. FIS is a leading, global commodity derivatives and physical broker specialising in freight and commodity markets. Kieran studied Economics at the Royal Holloway University of London. Contact Kieran at kieranw@freightinvestor.com.



Receive monthly container market reports direct to your inbox.