The Freightos Baltic Index Global benchmark eased 25% month on month in February to $2,755/FEU as demand decreased post Lunar New Year. However, the global rate remains 80% higher than 2019 levels due to Red Sea diversions that continue to absorb capacity across the market.

Asia–Mediterranean rates fell 19% month on month to $4,129/FEU, while Asia–Europe rates at the end of February were 28% lower than a month prior at $2,954/FEU and 50% lower than during the lead up to Lunar New Year in early January as these markets enter slow season.

Prices to Europe have reached their lowest level since the start of the Red Sea crisis, despite weather and labour driven disruptions causing some congestion at European hubs. This downward pressure on rates may also reflect increased competition between the newly reshuffled alliances.

Prices to Europe have reached their lowest level since the start of the Red Sea crisis, despite weather and labour driven disruptions causing some congestion at European hubs. This downward pressure on rates may also reflect increased competition between the newly reshuffled alliances.

Carriers are cancelling sailings and scheduling General Rate Increases for March as part of an effort to elevate shipping rates on these lanes, although there is some skepticism that these will succeed.

Transpacific rates to the US West Coast rates fell 27% month on month to $3,625/FEU for a 38% post-LNY decline. To the US East Coast rates decreased 31% in February to $4,622/FEU, including some carrier reductions in peak season surcharges that have been in place for more than a year. Some of the current demand dip may be temporary due to  limited supply as factory production is still recovering post-holiday.

Transpacific rates to the US West Coast rates fell 27% month on month to $3,625/FEU for a 38% post-LNY decline. To the US East Coast rates decreased 31% in February to $4,622/FEU, including some carrier reductions in peak season surcharges that have been in place for more than a year. Some of the current demand dip may be temporary due to  limited supply as factory production is still recovering post-holiday.

Container prices on these lanes are also approaching their 2024 lows. More elevated levels on these lanes – especially as compared to Asia–Europe rate behavior – in the final quarter of 2024 were largely attributable to shippers frontloading ahead of tariff increases. However, the rate slide in February may reflect that the intensity of this pull forward is easing as many shippers have already been building up inventories since November.

Once US tariffs on China or other trading partners are introduced (or averted) – with a decision coming in April at the earliest – transpacific ocean volumes and rates are likely to ease, possibly leading to a subdued peak season.

The US Trade Representative’s late-month proposed fees of $500k to $1.5 million for Chinese carriers, vessels or carriers with China-made vessels in their global fleets calling at US ports could also potentially go into effect in April. If approved, this rule change would put upward pressure on US container rates and could drive some diversions to Canadian hubs.

About Judah Levine, Research Lead, Freightos

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group's FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what's happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.


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