The Freightos Baltic Index Global benchmark continued to fall in March, easing 24% month on month (MoM) to $2,094/FEU and slipping below its floor for 2024. This is due to a combination of a post-Lunar New Year (LNY) lull in demand, impacts from the new carrier alliance services still moving into place, and capacity growth. The global rate nonetheless remains 60% higher than 2019 levels due to Red Sea diversions that continue to absorb capacity across the market.

Asia-Mediterranean and Asia-Europe rates fell 15% to 20% MoM in March to $3,250/FEU and $2,565/FEU, respectively. Prices to Europe have fallen 50% since the LNY lead-up, and despite continued Red Sea diversions and port congestion at many European hubs, these rates are 20% lower than their 2024 lows seen post-LNY last year.

The likely culprits for this stronger downward pressure compared to last year are the increased competition and less effective capacity management resulting from the new carrier alliance rollouts – especially as they are still working to bring new services into place – as well as continued fleet growth. 

Carriers are reducing capacity to Europe and have announced some General Rate Increases for April, although there is some skepticism that these will succeed in pushing rates up as March GRIs did not result in a rate rebound. With Red Sea diversions likely to continue, we may see another early start to peak season on these lanes, perhaps by May, as shippers adjust for longer lead times. 

Carriers are reducing capacity to Europe and have announced some General Rate Increases for April, although there is some skepticism that these will succeed in pushing rates up as March GRIs did not result in a rate rebound. With Red Sea diversions likely to continue, we may see another early start to peak season on these lanes, perhaps by May, as shippers adjust for longer lead times. 

On the transpacific, prices have also continued to slide since LNY as demand has decreased relative to the pre-holiday rush. At about $2,200/FEU to the US West Coast, end-of-March rates are 37% lower than a month prior, while US East Coast rates of $3,300/FEU fell 26% MoM and on both lanes, prices are down 50% since LNY.

However, despite transpacific volumes estimated to be significantly stronger than a year ago due to continued frontloading ahead of expectations of tariff introductions, rates on both lanes are more than 20% below their 2024 lows, again pointing to the impacts of the alliance reshuffle and of the continued global fleet growth.

However, despite transpacific volumes estimated to be significantly stronger than a year ago due to continued frontloading ahead of expectations of tariff introductions, rates on both lanes are more than 20% below their 2024 lows, again pointing to the impacts of the alliance reshuffle and of the continued global fleet growth.

The Trump administration is set to make early April announcements on a wide range of trade barriers, including reciprocal tariffs on its largest trading partners, sectoral tariffs, the 25% hike on Canada and Mexico, and the possible introduction of a 60% tariff for Chinese exports.

A 25% tariff on all goods from any country that purchases oil from Venezuela will also take effect in April. As a result, alongside reciprocal tariffs likely to apply to countries, many importers have been exploring or relying upon alternatives to sourcing from China, like Vietnam and India.

Finally, the USTR’s public hearing on its proposed significant port call fees targeting Chinese-made vessels was held in late March, with American BCOs, exporters, port labour, and ocean carriers all objecting to the rule and the significant threats it would pose to their respective businesses.

The frontloading of the last few months will likely ease in the coming months, either due to tariff introductions or to inventory buildups, making a subdued transpacific peak season possible.

About Judah Levine, Research Lead, Freightos

Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group's FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what's happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.


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